The question of Dave vs Jay has always been a bit of an East Coast-Left Coast argument. And while Leno has more often than not maintained bragging rights as far as ratings are concerned, Letterman has garnered more kudos by far. How do we explain this?
For the record, Leno has hosted since 1993 and won only one Emmy Award for the show in 1995, and one People's Choice Award in 2006. Letterman has been in the business much longer; hosting a daytime live show for NBC in 1980, that earned him a 1981 daytime Emmy, and another for writing. Then he had Late Night on NBC from 1982-1993 before moving to CBS with the Late Show. Late Night won four consecutive Emmy awards for writing from 1984-1987. The Late Show, on CBS, won its first Emmy for best comedy, variety, etc. show in 1994, later winning that honor for five consecutive years from 1998-2002. Dave, personally, has won four American comedy awards in 1989, 1994, 1995 and 2001. And Dave won his singular People's Choice Award in 2005.
Jay is a transplanted east-coaster from my home state of Massachusetts. His stand-up style is very mannered and he's been working with the same writing partners for many years. As a stand-up his material has always been pretty good, yet his delivery, timing, and styling of the jokes is getting tired and predictable. His rhythm is usually the same. He is becoming a bit of a hack. I attribute this to his loyalty to the people around him. The same opinions have made things stale. With lots of yes-men it's easy to begin to believe your own hype. As a host Leno barely has any skills at all. Those who criticize him say that he is completely fake. And one has only to watch a few segments to see what a glad-handing, backslapping, good to see ya, skill set he relies upon. It does make him seem fake and disingenuous. Everyone wants to know who is the real Jay?
Letterman, on the other hand, and to his credit, has always been an exceedingly self-deprecating, self-confessed geek. His life, on the surface anyway, has always been an open book and common fodder for material on the show. He is more often than not the butt of his own joke. His writing team has always been more of a mixed bag of personalities -- including Johnny Carson -- and this has always helped make his monologue fresher and help to keep his show more risky and off the wall. He has never been predictable. Although I must admit that a lot of the sideshow components of the show have been its weakest link. Principally because the re-occurring ones stayed in the show's quiver for way too long [Will It Float?]-- much like an SNL bit that ruins itself by going on and on forever. And then there is the competitive sniping and borrowing of bits between the two shows -- like the stupid bloopers found in local newspapers and magazines. And while Jay is very public about his love for money and the cars that it can buy, Letterman very quietly trumps him by buying the partnership in the Rahal IndyCar team, now Rahal-Letterman. Jay practically brags about how many nights a year he continues to do stand-up even though he doesn't need to. He certainly doesn't need the dough. He claims its helps to keep him fresh -- it does not. My pet theory is that it gives him ample opportunity to carouse, while leaving Mavis at home to wax his innumerable automobiles. Dave, on the other hand, has aged a bit more gracefully and is happy to stay home and enjoy his son and his common-law wife.
So while Jay, with his big head and multiple mannerisms, has over time become a caricature of himself; Letterman, especially with revelations of human frailty, has become more human and identifiable to his audience. He went through his hard times. His interviewing skills in the NBC years, especially if the guest was a non-celebrity, were devastatingly mean. I think this was the era when either booze or relationship problems contributed to his angry demeanor. But since the CBS era, quadruple bypass and the birth of a bastard son, Dave is more approachable and amiable than ever. His later career has moved in a discernible arc and he is arguably better now than ever. Meanwhile, Jay continues to come off like a cartoon character, whose hair just keeps getting whiter and whiter. And I really wonder if the signs of aging are not even more serious than that. On any given night I challenge viewers to count the number of times that he bangs his desk with his hand/fist for emphasis. What is up with this? Is it anger? Is this some early sign of Parkinson's Disease? It is an incredibly annoying tick.
The argument about ratings is barely even a valid one these days. Most of the younger demographic is probably watching the Colbert Report. Cable has changed everything. But my theory about Jay winning the ratings vs Dave is twofold. First, Jay lives where the stars are. Jay gets all the best guests. When Dave does get them they're usually commenting about a tired press junket and taking the red-eye. So for the viewers who are hungry for their Hollywood stars, if that's their criteria, they are probably going to tune in to Jay. Letterman simply cannot compete on movie star power alone. And maybe, just maybe, this is, in the end the essence of the chicken/egg story. Maybe Dave's material is more cutting edge because it has to be. Because that's the only way he can compete. My second idea is more of a glib, sociological theory. I think a higher percentage of people at home at 11:30pm on the East Coast are either reading or fucking; while the West Coasters are probably too wasted to do either. Passive entertainment is more up their alley.
NBC's gamble of putting Leno in the 10 o'clock time slot five days a week is a risky one. Sure it's saving them a ton of money in production costs. Though you can bet that Jay's bill alone is going to be fat. But NBC runs the risk of alienating thousands of viewers whose 10 o'clock shows will be bumped. It has always been my contention that network programmers are stupid. And I'm sure David E. Kelley will back me up on this. Because his shows have suffered terribly being pushed all over the calendar by ABC. People, at the heart of it, are ritualistic viewers. They make plans to watch the shows they love. They plan their evenings around it. They may even invite friends over, make popcorn, talk about an episode with those friends in the days that follow. Programming directors are ruining these rituals and shooting themselves in the foot in the process. This is one reason why Jay in prime time is a mistake. The others I have already enumerated. I predict he will fail. If he were smart he would sign a big fat deal in Vegas, collect his cars, and Mavis, and move out to the desert; where, with the additional tax benefits, he will live the good life and watch the last vestiges of dark hair turned white on his big fat head.
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